Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 73946.309155 78142.680770 82341.972195 86856.417487 91569.288691 96341.058128 101534.564496
2025-04-27 67733.881114 74195.370373 80845.539543 88191.749859 96069.565513 104254.078956 113390.234627
2025-05-04 62904.567082 70898.878332 79311.020371 88802.753999 99194.383602 110204.982154 122732.936181
2025-05-11 58822.561770 67919.946865 77673.368891 88875.182365 101351.123884 114785.243826 130310.323997
2025-05-18 55598.264760 65575.261095 76448.051240 89128.976064 103462.464524 119111.308319 137436.390620
2025-05-25 52778.960571 63463.728545 75281.491429 89256.440111 105262.382680 122952.519897 143910.919173
2025-06-01 50932.776820 62318.955992 75081.038307 90360.063931 108065.625859 127846.794924 151523.541925
2025-06-08 48576.619593 60444.550539 73918.077088 90240.679183 109367.638824 130956.779445 157048.141986
2025-06-15 47278.949302 59729.898264 74029.132934 91536.249047 112255.872659 135855.832865 164621.209293
2025-06-22 45808.950429 58728.614042 73731.863936 92288.251659 114458.776352 139930.032122 171227.538124
2025-06-29 44105.317208 57365.838206 72933.367523 92379.044511 115826.673696 142990.572753 176627.894877
2025-07-06 42498.529112 56051.681023 72130.440721 92406.134888 117070.217481 145870.710862 181797.866153
2025-07-13 41590.568695 55577.785990 72335.460456 93655.287446 119802.098376 150558.950815 189187.920692
2025-07-20 40709.089945 55099.665092 72506.290175 94842.569669 122452.619053 155160.739363 196508.544779
2025-07-27 39599.593609 54287.953374 72225.210076 95439.549996 124359.691490 158859.238502 202751.689308
2025-08-03 38307.200584 53194.184552 71548.442169 95505.136763 125582.010544 161709.407933 207963.852384
2025-08-10 37184.503779 52277.898338 71058.364965 95771.696990 127028.579563 164820.138194 213495.664471
2025-08-17 36065.888141 51327.334805 70489.208720 95906.262346 128285.820893 167685.057114 218726.723073
2025-08-24 35465.270736 51034.696412 70743.917443 97075.830414 130839.177406 172157.724260 225964.580360
2025-08-31 34338.399053 50005.183653 70012.568636 96949.280786 131727.659393 174547.607759 230617.348427
2025-09-07 33899.643585 49881.523998 70447.792047 98322.217023 134526.846747 179336.652138 238290.120575
2025-09-14 33246.096798 49443.912705 70451.719932 99119.030681 136580.435758 183192.556386 244811.571920
2025-09-21 32340.775738 48634.074168 69938.109886 99215.228848 137714.205025 185879.862792 249866.456984